2026 General Election · 7 November
New Zealand politics,
with the receipts.
Polling and seat projections, party donations, MP expenses and campaign ad spend — every figure sourced, the uncertainty shown, and nothing estimated and presented as measured.
Party vote since the 2023 election
Open the poll tracker →110 polls from 6 organisations. The full tracker shows every party and its confidence band.
Who clears 5%
Under MMP a party needs 5% of the party vote, or one electorate seat, to win list seats. Each party’s current estimate is the dot; the line is where the poll could plausibly be.
A party below 5% still wins list seats if it takes an electorate. Some parties are not reported by every pollster; the pollster profiles show which.
The data
- Poll tracker110polls trackedEvery published party-vote poll from 6 organisations, as a trend with the uncertainty attached.Open →
- Seat projection20,000simulationsEach party's seat range from a Monte Carlo of the party vote, with the polling uncertainty carried through Sainte-Laguë.Open →
- The parties7party profilesPolling, projected seats, stated policy in each party's own words, ad spend, the MP roster and $6,475,675 in declared donations — each party in one place.Open →
- Politicians136MPs & ministersTravel and accommodation per person, and the pecuniary interests 121 MPs declared, in their own words.Open →
- Expenses$16,337,414MP travel & accommodation136 MPs and 32 ministers, by quarter — the parliamentary and ministerial bills kept separate.Open →
- Campaign advertising$4,855,922Google + MetaWhat each party has spent on political ads, from the platforms' own transparency reports.Open →
Everything is sourced
Every figure links to its primary source. Where a source does not report something we say “not reported” — nothing is estimated and presented as measured.
Uncertainty is shown
A single poll is a noisy measurement. The range is always drawn, so a party sitting on 5% is shown as what it is — too close to call.
The data is yours
No paywall, no advertising, no editorial line. Every dataset is downloadable, so you can check the work yourself.
Take the data
Every dataset behind these pages, as CSV and JSON under CC BY-SA 4.0. Each row carries its source and its caveats.
The general election is on 7 November 2026.The pollstersHow it’s calculated