{
  "jurisdiction": "2026 New Zealand general election",
  "description": "Inputs for the seat projection: the size and composition of the House, the electorate seats each party is assumed to hold, the reader-adjustable electorate scenarios, and the current government and opposition blocs. The projection itself is derived from these inputs and the poll trend — it is modelled, not measured, and is the one part of this site that is. It earns its place by showing a seat range rather than a false point, and by stating every assumption here.",
  "attribution": "Seat totals and electorate results are official figures of the New Zealand Electoral Commission. House composition for 2026 is the Government Statistician's determination. Party-vote inputs are the poll aggregate (see the polls dataset). Bloc membership reflects the composition of the 54th Parliament.",
  "limitations": [
    "The projection draws each party's party vote from its own uncertainty independently. It does not model the joint structure — the shared national polling miss (about 61% of election error is common across houses, see the design factor) or the fact that shares compete for the same voters. Knife-edge coalition and wasted-vote probabilities are therefore approximate and will read a little more certain than they should.",
    "Electorate wins are assumed, not projected — there is no electorate-level polling here. The model floors the allocation only at the swing-independent seats a party holds largely regardless of the national vote: Te Pāti Māori's Māori electorates, ACT's Epsom, the Greens' urban seats. A major party's general electorates move with its party vote and never exceed its proportional entitlement, so they are not floored; National and Labour receive their entitlement. This is why every overhang the model produces comes from a small party, as every recent real overhang has (Te Pāti Māori in 2023, the Māori Party in 2008).",
    "The reader can flip the pivotal electorates on and off, but the model cannot foresee a seat changing hands that the reader does not toggle.",
    "The 2026 boundaries are redrawn from 2023 (64 general electorates, down one in the North Island). The locked seats that decide the maths — the 7 Māori electorates and Epsom — all persist on the new map.",
    "The 2026 House composition is cited to a secondary source pending a direct link to the Government Statistician's determination in the New Zealand Gazette (25 October 2024)."
  ],
  "house": {
    "nominalSeats": 120,
    "generalElectorates": 64,
    "maoriElectorates": 7,
    "listSeats": 49,
    "source": {
      "publisher": "Statistics New Zealand",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_New_Zealand_general_election",
      "published": "2024-10-25",
      "retrieved": "2026-07-23",
      "method": "manual",
      "note": "The Government Statistician determined on 25 October 2024 that the 2026 election has 48 North Island general electorates, 16 South Island general electorates, 7 Māori electorates and 49 list seats — 120 seats nominal, before any overhang. Verified via the linked article; the primary determination is published in the New Zealand Gazette."
    }
  },
  "simulation": {
    "draws": 20000,
    "seed": 20261107,
    "source": {
      "publisher": "Plain Politics NZ",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sainte-Lagu%C3%AB_method",
      "published": "2026-07-23",
      "retrieved": "2026-07-23",
      "method": "manual",
      "note": "20,000 Monte Carlo draws, fixed seed 20261107 (the election date, chosen once and never varied) so the projection is reproducible and identical on every run. Seat allocation uses the Sainte-Laguë method, New Zealand's method."
    }
  },
  "electorates": [
    {
      "party": "nat",
      "lockedElectorates": 0,
      "pivotal": false,
      "source": {
        "publisher": "Electoral Commission",
        "url": "https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2023/",
        "published": "2023-11-03",
        "retrieved": "2026-07-23",
        "method": "manual",
        "note": "National won 44 electorates at the 2023 general election (44 electorate + 4 list = 48). Locked at 0 on purpose: a major party's electorate wins move with its party vote and never exceed its proportional entitlement, so flooring the allocation at 44 would manufacture a false overhang whenever the party polls below its 2023 share. National's projected seats are its proportional entitlement. The 2023 electorate/list split reconciles to 71 electorate and 51 list seats across all parties."
      }
    },
    {
      "party": "lab",
      "lockedElectorates": 0,
      "pivotal": false,
      "source": {
        "publisher": "Electoral Commission",
        "url": "https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2023/",
        "published": "2023-11-03",
        "retrieved": "2026-07-23",
        "method": "manual",
        "note": "Labour won 17 electorates at the 2023 general election (17 electorate + 17 list = 34). Locked at 0 for the same reason as National: its electorate wins track its party vote and never exceed its entitlement, so they are not used as an allocation floor."
      }
    },
    {
      "party": "grn",
      "lockedElectorates": 3,
      "pivotal": true,
      "source": {
        "publisher": "Electoral Commission",
        "url": "https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2023/",
        "published": "2023-11-03",
        "retrieved": "2026-07-23",
        "method": "manual",
        "note": "The Greens won 3 electorates in 2023 — Auckland Central, Wellington Central and Rongotai (3 electorate + 12 list = 15). Pivotal only as a lifeboat safeguard: were the Greens ever drawn below 5%, holding electorates would keep them in the House."
      }
    },
    {
      "party": "act",
      "lockedElectorates": 1,
      "pivotal": true,
      "source": {
        "publisher": "Electoral Commission",
        "url": "https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2023/",
        "published": "2023-11-03",
        "retrieved": "2026-07-23",
        "method": "manual",
        "note": "ACT won one electorate, Epsom (David Seymour), in 2023 (1 electorate + 10 list = 11). Pivotal: if ACT's party vote falls below 5%, Epsom is the lifeboat that keeps the party in Parliament."
      }
    },
    {
      "party": "nzf",
      "lockedElectorates": 0,
      "pivotal": true,
      "source": {
        "publisher": "Electoral Commission",
        "url": "https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2023/",
        "published": "2023-11-03",
        "retrieved": "2026-07-23",
        "method": "manual",
        "note": "NZ First won no electorate in 2023 (0 electorate + 8 list = 8). Pivotal: with no electorate lifeboat, NZ First is in the House only if its party vote reaches 5% — the sharpest threshold question on the board."
      }
    },
    {
      "party": "tpm",
      "lockedElectorates": 6,
      "pivotal": true,
      "source": {
        "publisher": "Electoral Commission",
        "url": "https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2023/",
        "published": "2023-11-03",
        "retrieved": "2026-07-23",
        "method": "manual",
        "note": "Te Pāti Māori won 6 of the 7 Māori electorates in 2023 — Hauraki-Waikato, Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, Tāmaki Makaurau, Te Tai Hauāuru, Te Tai Tokerau and Waiariki (6 electorate + 0 list = 6). The most pivotal input: below 5% on the party vote, these electorates are both the lifeboat that keeps the party in and the source of the overhang that grew the House to 122 in 2023."
      }
    },
    {
      "party": "top",
      "lockedElectorates": 0,
      "pivotal": false,
      "source": {
        "publisher": "Electoral Commission",
        "url": "https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2023/",
        "published": "2023-11-03",
        "retrieved": "2026-07-23",
        "method": "manual",
        "note": "TOP holds no electorate. With no lifeboat, TOP enters Parliament only by reaching 5% on the party vote — the party the threshold view exists to answer for."
      }
    },
    {
      "party": "oth",
      "lockedElectorates": 0,
      "eligible": false,
      "pivotal": false,
      "source": {
        "publisher": "Electoral Commission",
        "url": "https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2023/",
        "published": "2023-11-03",
        "retrieved": "2026-07-23",
        "method": "manual",
        "note": "\"Others\" is a residual bucket of many separate minor parties, not one party that pools its vote. It is never allocated seats as a bloc; its share counts entirely toward the wasted vote."
      }
    }
  ],
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "id": "epsom",
      "party": "act",
      "label": "ACT holds Epsom",
      "onSeats": 1,
      "offSeats": 0,
      "default": true,
      "source": {
        "publisher": "Electoral Commission",
        "url": "https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2023/",
        "published": "2023-11-03",
        "retrieved": "2026-07-23",
        "method": "manual",
        "note": "ACT has held Epsom since 2005. Turn this off to see the seat maths if ACT loses the electorate and must clear 5% on party vote alone."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "tpm-electorates",
      "party": "tpm",
      "label": "Te Pāti Māori hold their Māori electorates",
      "onSeats": 6,
      "offSeats": 0,
      "default": true,
      "source": {
        "publisher": "Electoral Commission",
        "url": "https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2023/",
        "published": "2023-11-03",
        "retrieved": "2026-07-23",
        "method": "manual",
        "note": "Te Pāti Māori held 6 Māori electorates after 2023. Turn this off to see the House if the party wins no electorate — below 5% on the party vote, it would then leave Parliament entirely, and the overhang would disappear."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "nzf-electorate",
      "party": "nzf",
      "label": "NZ First wins an electorate",
      "onSeats": 1,
      "offSeats": 0,
      "default": false,
      "source": {
        "publisher": "Electoral Commission",
        "url": "https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2023/",
        "published": "2023-11-03",
        "retrieved": "2026-07-23",
        "method": "manual",
        "note": "NZ First holds no electorate. Turn this on to give the party a lifeboat — an electorate win would keep it in Parliament regardless of the 5% threshold."
      }
    }
  ],
  "coalitions": [
    {
      "label": "National, ACT and NZ First",
      "members": [
        "nat",
        "act",
        "nzf"
      ],
      "source": {
        "publisher": "Wikipedia contributors",
        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixth_National_Government_of_New_Zealand",
        "published": "2023-11-24",
        "retrieved": "2026-07-23",
        "method": "manual",
        "note": "The three parties that formed the government after the 2023 election. Shown as the current governing bloc; the arithmetic below is not a prediction that they will govern again."
      }
    },
    {
      "label": "Labour, Green and Te Pāti Māori",
      "members": [
        "lab",
        "grn",
        "tpm"
      ],
      "source": {
        "publisher": "Wikipedia contributors",
        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/54th_New_Zealand_Parliament",
        "published": "2023-12-05",
        "retrieved": "2026-07-23",
        "method": "manual",
        "note": "The three opposition parties of the 54th Parliament. Shown as the current opposition bloc; again, the arithmetic is not a prediction."
      }
    }
  ]
}